Reviewing the Barack Obama Administration Part One: Foreign Affairs

Official Obama Portrait

Whoever wins the 2016 election will invariably begin their term in the shadow of the lasting effects of Barack Obama's eight years as commander-in-chief. This fact is so inescapable that presidential candidates often consider it when crafting their campaign message. History shows us that the opposition party has the opportunity to cast their candidate as an alternative to the failures of the previous president, while the ruling party's candidate has the unfavorable task of defending the incumbent's principles (although not necessarily their actions resulting from an interpretation of those principles). 

Considering this, I believe it is crucial that any analysis of 2016 presidential election begins with a discussion of the history they'll be running up against: the eight years the nation was led by Barack Obama. 

Middle East Policy: Although it's taken significantly longer than most Obama supporters expected, the American combat mission within Afghanistan has officially ended. There are still 10,000 American troops in the country assisting Afghan security forces in maintaining order in the country, but the active insurgency that was taking place there is now over. 

However, in sharp contrast to the improving situation in Afghanistan, Iraq has devolved into a country with undefined borders and a marauding terrorist group imposing it's will on the local population. As the Islamic State attempts to expand its sphere of influence, it has brutalized citizens of the country through the systematic use of rape, slavery, and forced conversion. As American troops return to the area in an attempt to destroy the terrorist groups capabilities, historians will debate if the troop withdrawal from the area will be one of Obama's most costly foreign policy decisions.

Outside the two war zones that America has been actively involved in for over a decade, the administration has influenced how the Arab Spring developed as well. The choice to intervene in Libya and support transition in Egypt have yet to pan out as positively as administration officials have hoped, and members of the governments within Saudi Arabia and Israel have even said that it led to a greater destabilization of the Middle East. In the wake of the ousting of autocratic leaders Muammar Gaddafi and Hosni Mubarak, Libya is still without a unified government and Egypt has transitioned back to a military led government. In Syria, lackluster support of any opposition group has resulted in Bashar Al-Assad remaining in power, much to the dismay of democracy advocates worldwide. It appears that while Obama was quick to act in the face of an Arab Spring, the Arab Winter that followed caught the administration unprepared and has caused a resurgence of autocratic government by those in power and extremist resistance from those wishing to attain influence.

Source: The Economist

Despite the slow progress in Afghanistan/Iraq and the persistently autocratic rule of many leaders in the Middle East, there have been some regional breakthroughs during Obama's tenure. The most notable of which is the raid that targeted and killed Osama Bin Laden, a significant Al Qaeda figure despite his low profile in the years preceding his death. The assassination of Bin Laden was a major morale victory for America, but more importantly it damaged the belief that jihadists in the region may find safe haven in countries sympathetic to their cause.

Talks with Iran have developed during Obama's tenure, much to the unease of US regional allies Israel and Saudi Arabia. It is still unclear if the negotiations will result in lifting sanctions on Iran or deter them from developing a nuclear weapons program, but US diplomacy certainly lessens the threat of direct war involving Iran that would greatly destabilize the region.

The Rest of the World: At times over the past fifteen years it has been hard to remember that America has foreign policy not related to the Middle East, but since the turn of the century, other regions have surged in importance. Most notably is the Asia-Pacific region, with China becoming a growing threat to US hegemony. While the US and China have strengthened trade ties and carefully avoided direct confrontation, less obvious competition between the great powers has ratcheted up in recent years. The Chinese military is waging an ongoing hacking campaign against US targets, resulting in large amounts stolen data and intellectual property. China has also increased military spending with the intent of matching US military capabilities, a frightening prospect for the globe if the relationship between the two countries continues to grow more strained.

Source: BBC

In response to growing adventurism by China in the military sphere, the US has increased military cooperation and arms sales to regional allies like India and Japan. While this relationship has remained peaceful throughout Obama's tenure, there is little doubt that tension between the world's two largest economies has increased over the past seven years, and it is likely that this tension will only continue until a new balance between the powers is established.

On the other hand, Russia has openly defied the US and other western powers in a number of ways, much to the frustration of US policy-makers. Strong ties with US rivals like Iran and Syria demonstrated to many that the Cold War may not be over in Putin's eyes. Indeed, Putin's recent support of rebels in Donestk and other parts of Ukraine have showed his willingness to openly confront and defy the interests of the EU and US. While Obama has made small actions to counter Russian expansionism, it is clear that the next occupant of the White House will need to stand strong in the face of Putin's aggression.

Though it has gone largely unseen by the American public, Obama's administration has improved views of the United States across the globe. While a precise effect resulting from more favorable opinions of the US is harder to define, it seems obvious that having people across the world view America in a positive light is a benefit for the country.

Source: Pew Research Center

Tools of the War on Terror: The Global War on Terror that Obama inherited from his predecessor distinguishes itself from previous wars through the extensive use of indefinite detention of suspected insurgents and unmanned aerial vehicles (also known as drones) for combat purposes. This is not the first time that new military technologies and realities of combat have forced decision-makers within the Pentagon to adapt their way of waging war, but the implications of these significant developments will have global consequences for years to come.

The most notable example of an indefinite detention facility is the universally known Guantanamo Bay. For many, both at home and abroad, the creation of Guantanamo Bay symbolizes a point in history where America's founding principles were forgotten in the name of security. Prior to his ascension to the role of the presidency, and even early in his first term, Barack Obama was publicly in favor of closing the facility. Yet, 6 years into his term, the prison remains in operation with 122 inmates still held captive there. To his credit, Barack Obama has implemented a gradual release program for inmates who were determined to pose no security risk to the government. However, for many who supported Obama in 2008, the over 100 individuals who remain in the prison is still far too many for a man who had promised to close the doors. With Obama entering the lame duck period of his presidency, the future of the base (as well as the use of indefinite detention for terror suspects) is likely in the hands of the next commander-in-chief.

Drones have been used across the Middle East for surveillance and targeted air strikes against high-value targets. While the claimed intent of using unmanned vehicles is to diminish the human cost of war, the facts to back that claim are disputed. Drones have killed well over 2,000 people across the Middle East, and though the administration claims that many of them were insurgents, there is little evidence to back their claim. The loose definition of combatant has blurred the lines between "civilian" and "insurgent" beyond what many would consider reasonable. It begs the question: how should America react if another country with drone capabilities (Russia or China perhaps) began using the same definition in their regional conflicts? These are dilemmas that the next president will almost have to confront directly.

Part 2 Coming Soon...

Let's Get The Political Party Started!

The 44th president has delivered his sixth State of The Union address...
The 114th iteration of Congress has been sworn in...
And 11 states have new residents in the governor's mansion...
You know what that means? Time to focus on the 2016 presidential election!

The presidential race that people have been talking about since Obama secured his second term (and some even before that) is finally within sight, causing politicos and mainstream media figures alike to wring their hands with excitement. And they have good reason to be excited, as the 2016 presidential election will almost certainly be groundbreaking in a variety of ways. 

For years people have been paying attention to every move by Hillary Clinton and tried to give it some political significance. Most expect her to be the first female presidential candidate nominated by a major party. However, while some see her nomination as an inevitability, a new generation of Democratic policy makers is honing their message to see if they can challenge the crown princess of the left.

Simultaneously, a slew of political heavyweights will compete for the opportunity to shape the future of the GOP, which has looked less grand and more old in recent presidential contests. Although Republicans are eager to get one of their own back in the oval office, the ideological battle between business-focused political moderates and values-focused Tea Partiers is long from decided.

Few things are as exciting as the spectacle that happens every 4 years when the nation's highest office in the land is up for grabs. For some, it's the only time they head to the polls to choose their elected officials. The more politically engaged drool over the day-to-day drama that precedes a potential watershed moment in American history. 

Whether you're one of the former or the latter, this blog is for you!

Over the next 22 months, I'll be writing about the developments in the presidential race. Everything from the early posturing for populists and fighting for fundraising dollars to the inevitable October surprise is fair game. 

As the leading candidates begin to separate themselves from the pack and the important issues come to the forefront, we'll get a clearer picture of who will succeed Barack Obama as the inhabitant of the most famous address in America.

Let's get this political party started!